The Financial Debunker

History will record the transition of the NEW Malaysia and the aftermath. Najib, Rosmah, Mahathir, UMNO, BN, PH, 1MDB and kleptocracy are 8 of the most used words for the new chapter of Malaysian History.

 

...However, if a Malaysian Financial Recession is not averted by the new government, "Recession" will join as the 9th word and in the event that a recession is turned into a crisis, the word "Crisis" will be equally used as much as 1MDB...

Crisis = a crucial or decisive point or situation; a turning point. Recession = The act or an instance of receding or withdrawing.  By definition, journalists often describe a recession as two consecutive quarters of declines in quarterly real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP).

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Depending on the writer and his/her affiliations, the narrative might be deploring in nature, neutral, biased or even just plainly analytical. Article on the 26th of August 2018 mentioned 

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1) our dependence on the Chinese Investment. Consequentially, Najib was instrumental in molding the basis and fundamentals of the Malaysian Economy during his 10 years with it's target and growth dependent on Chinese Investment to a certain percentage which we believed to be around the number 25 to 30% of our GDP.

The New Malaysia seems to be not just hell bent in prosecuting Najib's 1MDB and his past deeds but also persecuting companies, investments tied to Najib's legacy - to the point of harming diplomatic ties with their suspicion that money laundering is involved.

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3) Their decision while seems justifiable to their point of view ( debatable in nature ) will see Malaysia with a shrinking economy ( again 10 to 15% by my estimates ) - regardless whether the debt will shrink or becomes more sustainable according to the NEW MOF. The most obvious sign is the selling and privatization of  government assets by Khazanah and PNB ( debatable as well according to the new definition by the NEW MOF on assets, debts and liabilities ). I will interpret that the shrinking economy leading to the selling of assets  are related to the policies setup by the NEW MOF as well as the bilateral ties that were affected  creating not just economic instability but trust deficit to the current Malaysian administration.

 

...A recession seems to be imminent...

However, due to the American-Chinese Trade Wars, recent global economic data have pointed to the possibility of an Asian Financial Crisis 2.0. As Malaysia is located in Asia coupled by the transition and reboot of bilateral  ties that might hamper us into a recession, it seems our location might accelerate the process from a recession into a crisis.

...A Malaysian Financial Crisis will brew faster than our neighbors. The 4th Prime Minister failed to save Malaysia from the crisis in 1998. The wisdom of the 7th Prime Minister hopefully could negate the future forecasted impact...

 

Type the phrase "economic instability" in GOOGLE white box and GOOGLE will respond with the following suggestions, DO NOT PRESS ENTER

a) economic instability in Malaysia
b) economic instability in Pakistan

c) economic instability in Europe

While GOOGLE's algorithm could be making suggestion due to IP location, Malaysia has now joined the "economic instability" club - well according to GOOGLE anyway.

No doubt the 6th Prime Minister was impervious of the 1MDB scandal until it became his own silver bullet, the 7th Prime Minister with only 5 months on the helm had made Malaysia joined the exclusive club. The only defense was unlike the 6th Prime Minister, the 7th Prime Minister never made himself the Finance Minister except appointing one. Should the 7th Prime Minister be blamed, it was just a matter of unintentional disastrous appointment. Similarly like the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis, the due was paid by George Soros. Anwar the Finance Minister was spared from the blame but was paired with the bars...

 

Lets digress 2018 at the moment and jump back to the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis. Now the mentor-protege relation between Anwar and Mahathir was over in 1998 because Anwar did not agree to Mahathir's demand for a RM 2 billion bailout for Mirzan's shipping company, according to Anwar after his sacking. Whether the statement by Anwar is the truth is irrelevant as the bailout would not have happened if the crisis was not there in the first place.

...The question worth pondering is who will take the blame for Malaysian Financial Crisis 2.0 if it happened? How will it alter the current political landscape? (this is a long debatable one)...

Obviously, Mahathir being at the center stage of the 1998 dilemma will not want his 2018 political comeback legacy tarnished, a financial crisis will support the prophecy by Ustad Fadzil Noor turned into reality. How can a preposterous religious preacher had his curse come true?

Trapped in such dilemma, the only remedies ( before the court of social media and international newspaper starts molding the perception for the posthumous title Father of Malaysian Financial Recession/Crisis  ) are only

i) set aside before it brewed to the 8th Prime Minister (assuming is Anwar) or,

ii) the existing more compelling narrative with stronger evidence and stricter execution for the 6th Prime Minister and his wife. 

One or both measures seems to be necessary so that the 6th or 8th Prime Minister will be anointed with the  posthumous title Father of Malaysian Financial Recession/Crisis. In case anybody wonders, 6th, 7th and 8th were once upon a time part of UMNO and perhaps UMNO should take the right action to reverse this potential adverse tragedy.

 

...Dependent on the Malaysia's financial and political circumstances during the 8th Prime Minister's ascension coupled by the country's restructured  security forces, the stint of ascension might not last long...

*I am making a brief logical review on the probability for a recession or a crisis.

**I personally disagree with the wordings of Asian Financial Crisis or even South East Asian Financial Crisis because countries like Hong Kong and Singapore seems to be capable  in averting the brute impact on it's currency and economy.