Hedging the Voting Mechanism ... | thefinancialdebunker

Strategy Series 2.3 - Hedging The Voting Mechanism For Budget 2021

Date of Release : 19 November 2020

Update : 23 November 2020 (Added at the end)

Desperate DRAFT

*Sequel to The Limitations of The Agong, "Kerajaaan Cabut Lokap" or The "Prison Break" Government. & Strategy Series 2 - Hedging the Impeachment Mechanism

**In order to maximize the potential for Budget 2021 to be passed on the 26th of November....

...A strong justification must be made for the voting process to be split into three sessions (and many more.). A thorough examination and a psychologiccal approach is crucial in determining it's outcome. This is the ultimate approach....

***We won't mince our words. With different political camps aiming different goals (some wanted to avert selective justice, some wanted a unity government under his watch (not under the current Prime Minister), some wanted a stop to the label as the longest waiting Prime Minister in Malaysian history. Frankly, none of them is our problem.) while not having the profound wisdom to make alignment with our side (The BN administration under the Prime Minister, Defense Minister and tax director failed to approve our Tax Evasion Artificial Intelligence as well as executing necessary key elements to the Malaysian Espionage/Defense Program accordingly to our taste. The PH administration under the 94 Prime Minister with his comedian fitting Defense Minister and his Deputy Defense Minister (accused for having strong Communist inclinations by the Malay groups) failed to get the right attention from the Mainland Chinese and Americans to give a chance in raising or developing our ground breaking technology. A pledge to Anwar's camp through some of his inner circle seems to take no heed or were confused on how to proceed. If your side care not of developing Defense Contractors, it would be best if your side just perish (politically). Sovereignty? When ballistic thermonuclear missiles could render Malaysia into total collapse within seconds.),...

...therefore, it is imperative that we (as Defense Contractors Wannabes) would support an administration (under Muhyiddin) that may have the wisdom to endorse our pivotal Defense Related Technology. We will endorse the administration for another 6 months (the participation and support from WAF, H2O, MOD, the FT minister and MCA would be crucial in deciding the future of this pivotal technology. In return their continuous political thriving in this very dynamic political landscape.)....

ZAFRUL PARTIALLY CONCEDED TO NAJIB'S INFLUENCE

Najib's coming back is a calculated and anticipated event. Predictions had been made since the end of 2018. His rising popularity is absolutely undeniable due to his constant display of economical prowess (including solutions. Whether he should be entitled for a clean-slate on his kleptocratic past is a whole debate altogether.) and caring (whether genuine or otherwise is another matter for discussion) nature towards the people. PH could have gained more grounds than Najib two years ago, yet due to infighting between the Mahathir-Anwar camps and the intentions in leading drastic changes with regards to social fabric related policies subsequently led to their continuous lost in many by-elections until their official collapse when Mahathir signed off his resignation in front of the Agong.

Muhyiddin's administration ought to be extremely wary when dealing with financial matters. Najib was removed because of financial matters, PH was dethroned due to their bad money-managing capabilities. Money talks and if Muhyiddin ain't good in puffing up the economy and provide comfort to his people, his head will roll soon. A Malay-Muslim solidarity based administration is only a temporary facade. PH could have rubbed off that facade during their time if the Malaysian economy was skyrocketing at that time. Hence, Muhyiddin must not overestimate the current Malay-Muslim agenda that puts him on his seat at the moment.

...Even our Defense Related Proposal (which could generate tens to hundreds of billions sold to the right investors - which is why realistically we always hope for the backing from the Americans preferably than the Chinese.) required a strong start up capital at an infancy stage among others. In other words, money talks once again....

The recent skirmish between Najib and the Minister of Finance with regards to the EPF withdrawal issue is of an absolute interest to the people. Najib is slowly worshipped as a hero especially among the B40s and M40s. This is strongly resonating among the Malay communities. It started to resonate among the Chinese and Indians. It is just a matter of time when many will start to admit that Malaysian economical peak was churned under his administration.

Muhyiddin (through Tengku Zafrul) finally conceded (though not completely) to Najib's proposal with regards to the EPF withdrawal. It is a political win for Najib. Many realized of Najib's potential coming back (this article will stop him at the moment but facts remain facts and he is gaining political ground.). His sudden ascendency was felt and the re-surfacing of a New Jho Low Chapter by Al-Jazeera popping out of the blue signifies the fear from Mahathir's camp of a Najib potential coming back. All in an attempt to quench his rising and popularity.

As a matter of fact, BN MPs went silent when Najib was elected (or selected, it does not matter) as the representative of BN Back Bencher Club except Annuar Musa going all out in denouncing him as not.

Yet what is so daunting is the fact that Annuar Musa's denial just went into complete silence. Annuar Musa was extremely wary of Najib's popularity that he seems to be the mastermind to rally Mahathir's Pejuang and Shafie's Warisan to back up Budget 2021.

*While we admit Najib's capability to rise, it does not imply we endorse his rising at the moment.

**Annuar Musa, your turn to act now.

Question 1) So how can Muhyiddin counter an Anwar-Najib move to ensure the Budget is passed?

Question 2) It is also unpredictable for the ball to be passed to Mahathir and Shafie (like how Annuar Musa has planned to make his move.) as Mahathir has the intention to take over as Prime Minister once again (Is he not? I don't believe he doesn't.). With Mukhriz will soon raise a motion to stop the election from being held in the nearest time, it is a clear indicator that Mahathir's camp is running out of options. First, they don't have a political party yet. Second, an election will boost Zahid right at the top post especially with Muhyiddin's mediocre economy team. Hence, Mahathir sees a future of him under Zahid. How dreaded can that be? Yet, how must he put up with his pride to approve the Budget when Muhyiddin was clearly instrumental in his sacking and probably instrumental for Pejuang to be never formally registered.

Still, we urge Mahathir to concede to Muhyiddin (well, at the moment).

***Perhaps Muhyiddin's team had thought of it. This explains the social distancing applied during the Parliamentary seating opened early in November which only allows 80 MPs to be physically present inside the parliament. Is this a pre-emptive move to create voting advantages? Again, this was stopped by Anwar. If the voting sessions were divided to three batches at different time, it would be much easier to navigate negotiations. Therefore increasing the odds for Budget 2021 to be passed.

CONVENTIONS & CONSTITUTION VERSUS JUSTIFICATIONS & CALCULATIONS

Let's summarize what is thoroughly written

1) The Constitution never clearly lays out the mechanism for the voting procedure on the Budget. In other words, there is no specific written rules.

2) Conventionally (as Art Harun has argued previously that Malaysian Parliament is based on Constitution and United Kingdom is based on Convention. For this political dillemma, Art Harun has to justify on the modifications required than to blatantly follow conventions.) as it was put forward by Prof James Chin that the Budget is usually read three times.

a) This Convention never specifically put any time gap between every reading. Basically, this is just Parliamentary Tradition.

Traditionally/Conventionally also if the Budget fails to be passed, it implies that the administration must fall. Yet this is not stated in The Constitution. It is all just a Convention.

b) This Convention was applied during political periods which are less dynamic in nature. A period of political stability.

So by applying arguments 1, 2a, 2b and Standing Order 90 (which states that the Speaker could entertain a particular motion overriding other governmental affairs) - a motion on the voting mechanism (which would require no voting) could be dictated by one of Muhyiddin's ally in the Parliament and subsequently endorsed by the Speaker.

The analogy is simple....

..If the Agong was allowed to interview Members of Parliament due to the Sheraton Move aftermath which is neither written in The Constitution nor executed conventionally (implies precedence), in simple terms, the Speaker has the prerogative to decide the mechanism for the voting process due to the current dynamic political landscape....

THE ULTIMATE VOTING MECHANISM

*The majority required is now 111 (oh, Najib love this number. Let's give Najib 111 votes to ensure that the Budget is pass right in front of his eyes.). Why 111 and not 112? Liew Vui Kong and Hasbullah Osman had passed away. Therefore, the total MPs at the moment is 220. Calculations below will assume Warisan with 8 MPs and the Najib Zahid factions (aka The Sixteen factions) reduced to 15 MPs.

There is a strong 114 individuals (minus Hasbullah Osman, Read previous prequel.) unaligned to Anwar. Minus the 13 (4 from Pejuang (after Maszlee pledge his silent support to Anwar) and 1 from MUDA and 8 from Warisan), there will be a strong 101 (most probably amount number of MPs to support the Budget 2021).

114 -13 = 101

Inclusive of Najib and Zahid factions yield

101 + 14 = 115. (The danger stems from Najib's and Zahid's faction that may destabilize the 111 votes required. Although Annuar Musa (and team) had prepared to deal with Warisan and Pejuang - this is a high stake gamble. Dealing with Mahathir should be on the final day itself at the last hours.)

0) Voting should be divided to three sessions.

1) Morning session. This session should be reserved for government officials (ministers and deputy ministers.) only.

This is very important as Muhyiddin should expect a result of 70 YES out of 70. (about 70.)

This result should be announced in order to enhance the psychological advantages that Muhyiddin has as the authority.

If it is less than 70. There is a traitor among the elected Minister. Most likely from UMNO. If there is a traitor, this implies that Najib and Zahid had been successful to rally UMNO Ministers and Deputy Ministers in going up against Muhyiddin from the elected ministers. (Though Muhyiddin had conceded partially to Najib's demand on the EPF withdrawal.)

Less than 70 will prompt Muhyiddin for the following option : [ Some ministers must be dropped and new alliances must be forged in quick secrecy and effectively. ]

2) The afternoon session will be reserved for Pro Muhyiddin allies.

a) This option includes UMNO, BERSATU, PAS, GPS, PBS, MCA and MIC (if there is no traitor from UMNO in the morning session). The outcome will be as follows

i) If Najib and Zahid support this Budget in the afternoon, Muhyiddin will have a clean 115 votes.

ii) if Najib and Zahid never supported this Budget in the afternoon, Muhyiddin will have 113 votes. (This implies Najib's faction such as Tajuddin Abdul Rahman, Ahmad Maslan, Tengku Adnan and Noh Omar is aligned to Muhyiddin and not Najib.).

iii) If Muhyiddin got less than 115 votes but more than 111. Say 112 or 111, Muhyiddin will subsequently know that some of Najib and Zahid factions has been playing an antagonizing position against him. Yet Muhyiddin is now secure for not needing the opposition to ensure his Budget to go through.

iv) If Muhyiddin receives less than 111. He will need the opposition to ensure the Budget will be passed.

b) This option includes UMNO but it would be slotted as the last party in the afternoon session to vote. ( if there is a traitor from UMNO in the morning session. Muhyiddin will need to observe the momentum during this session on how strong the Najib and and Zahid faction are willing to throw him under the bus.)

This is not only to serve as a payback from Muhyiddin's side for UMNO's betrayal in the morning session but also serve as a method to watch closer the amount of MPs from the Najib-Zahid factions that will readily go up against Muhyiddin.

3) The evening session will be held for the rest of the MPs. (total 220 - 115 = 105 remaining.)

The evening session is inconsequential if Muhyiddin had secure 111 votes previously. It is best for the evening session to be called off. Therefore support for Muhyiddin will be formally as follows

[ 111 to 115 support with 109 to 105 unknown ]

If Muhyiddin continues with the evening session, the outcome will be the following (as the opposition realize they are not in need anymore, they would very likely choose to vote against.)

[ 111 to 115 support with 109 to 105 against ]

It is better to have "unknowns" than "against". Hence, the only time Muhyiddin will need the opposition is when he receives less than 111 votes from his comrades in PN.

So this would be Muhyiddin's priority in order...

1st) Mahathir's faction (Total 4. Putting DAP first will be an abomination. Mahathir had said that he doesn't want a political crisis even though he initially submitted the Vote of No Confidence motion. Muhyiddin could make concession removing some traitorous ministers in his cabinet with some of Mahathir's men.) -> first session in the evening (assume at 4pm)

2nd) Warisan (Total 8. Shafie had said that Muhyiddin and him are still friends.) -> second session in the evening (assume at 4.30pm)

3rd) DAP (Total 42. They haven't made any Vote of No Confidence against Muhyiddin. They are more co-operative than PKR as they are not targeting the Prime Minister's post. Putting them ahead will make Anwar uncomfortable as well. ) -> third session in the evening (assume at 5.00pm)

4th) Independent Candidate such as Syed Saddiq and Maszlee Malik (Total 2)

5th) Amanah (Those who submitted the Vote of No Confidence motions must be put aside. Total 11)

6th) PKR (Anwar wanted the seat, so his side would be the last. You wouldn't want a strong 38 from Anwar to dictate your Budget, right?)

Between the afternoon session and evening session, there are many rooms for political maneuvers. The one who wields actual power are in a better position to have the upper hand.

ERRORS FROM SABOTAGE AND OTHER UNCERTAINTIES

The Anwar, Zahid and Najib faction had maximum strength of 53 MPs. The incomprehensible moves from Anwar is his sphere of influence over Amanah and DAP with Najib having his sphere of influence over BN members. Muhyiddin should be wary that if the MPs started to see Najib/Anwar or both as emerging capable leaders, these MPs may dump Muhyiddin and jump on board for a new promising platform. At the moment, our interest remains preferring a status quo.

Mahathir's camp realizes of Najib's capability in sabotaging Budget 2021. DAP and AMANAH should prioritize their survival of not succumbing to Anwar's attempt (baited by a strong inclined Najib) to rock the boat again until another administration is again destabilized and an election being held. An election will decimate PH completely (unless The Financial Debunker provides them a powerful SILVER BULLET) yet Anwar seems hellbent to go all out to have his way (either him as Prime Minister or no way. Anwar, Najib and Zahid will make a strong attempt to derail the Budget unless their proposals are made relevant. This is politics anyway.). The catalyst of Sheraton Move is Anwar, although it was orchestrated by Mahathir's faction. Muhyiddin's wobbly administration was again orchestrated by Anwar, Najib and Zahid.

...However, as long as Muhyiddin (as well as PH) tries to implement this methodology, the odds for Budget 2021 to be passed will be extremely higher than having 220 MPs putting their hands up at the same time....

UPDATES

1) Some will be opting out to vote. It is not prescribed in The Constitution on the voting mechanism with regards to the Budget.

"Let us be clear that abstain is different than an absence. Abstain makes clear of your intentions for not wanting to participate. Absence implies that you are not dutiful enough to be hold accountable to make decision on behalf of the people. Therefore, providing strong grounds for The Speaker to alter the calculation on the Majority especially during times of strong political uncertainties."

2) Obviously Razaleigh had a valid point for raising the issue on political corruption, yet will he apply similar standards to those who had trials or convicted with economical corruption?

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2020/11/22/ku-li-warns-against-political-corruption-to-maintain-power/

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/552138

Seems there is an unwritten agreement among Najib, Zahid and Razaleigh. Razaleigh will persuade the rest of the MPs with his rather untainted image, Najib and Zahid are cashing on Razaleigh to make their way out. The crux of the question is

"Will Razaleigh accused Zahid and Najib of "economical corruption" in order to make bid in the next UMNO General Assembly as the next President or Vice President?"

Subsequently the post of Prime Minister? Or is there a consensus among the three gentlemen? Why didn't Najib and Zahid let Tok Mat do the talking with regards to Budget 2021? Tok Mat's silence is very mysterious and the equations do not seem to add up. Is it because Tok Mat isn't an MP? In this case, Tok Mat is in the danger zone. Will Razaleigh sink Tok Mat in the next General Assembly? Who pushed Razaleigh to meet the Agong on the same day Anwar met the Agong? Who is pushing for a Razaleigh political return? According to some, it is Mahathir. Do you think Mahathir could make the Agong provide an audience with Razaleigh when Mahathir failed to have one himself? Our bet is not Mahathir but Najib. Is Razaleigh being used by Zahid, Najib & co temporarily to topple Muhyiddin like Anwar? Razaleigh believes that he could go far, yet UMNO is a conservative political party. Razaleigh is not much of a family man (having a late childless marriage to a non-Malay woman - who had passed away in recent years.) and his political intellectual stature resemblance to Ghazalie Shafie (once a contender for the post of the Prime Minister) won't fit him well with most of the UMNO's grassroot. Conservatives take all these seriously which is why theoretically - Razaleigh just doesn't cut out to fit the Malaysian Prime Minister Candidacy Playbook. Period.

From our political understanding and observations, Najib practices "7 layers of politics" (once conveyed by Isham Jalil) and the principles of "Tiga Hujung". Let's observe if he is capable to break free from this political entrapment and whether other politicians may be deluded to fall for his 7 layers of political play through Razaleigh.

Why do we sense a group of politician wannabes marginalized by UMNO and MCA grassroot level roping Razaleigh into making such decisions? Including love letters for all the MPs. So what is Razaleigh trying to convey? DAP and PKR are now holy cows for him to assert his political influence/mileage as long as keeping Muhyiddin out.

Ok, off you go to those who are reading. Go play your numbers first. If this Budget is passed, we have very interesting plans for all of you.