Hegding The Impeachment Mechanism | thefinancialdebunker

Strategy Series 2 - Hedging The Impeachment Mechanism

*Impeachment = vote of no confidence. Mahathir is weakening and the PKR and DAP (the term coined and emphasized by Rafizi in his latest threat to the administration, we iterate. Refer one of the links in the article for reference.) momentum is gathering. "Art of War" dictates that balance of power is best for the country (including us). Our inclination will be for Mahathir to stay longer at least for the mean time until the right leader that fits our image and aspiration emerges.

**Let us be pedantic, Rafizi in the article below quoted "...ruling coalition’s top leaders would be forced to impose a retirement date on Dr Mahathir if he does not commit to a timeline...". We will take the quote as forceful removal or at least an attempt to make forceful removal.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/01/10/rafizi-for-pakatan-to-retain-power-dr-m-must-hand-over-the-reins-willingly/1826452

*** (xxxx) Series will be the spin off to this series. It will complete this article and introduce an out of the box "game changer" strategy under certain circumstances (More suitable to be applied to American than Malaysian politics.). We concur that the "game changer" will not be able to hedge the differences by huge margin but to assist in making a single digit percentile differences only.

THE RAFIZI RUSH

Malaysian Modern Politics is synonymous to the name Rafizi. While Mahathir's come back made the PH dream came true, Rafizi provided the platform (we were unsure if our messages to certain top PKR leadership at the end of 2017 did increases the odds and accelerated for their cooperation but letting Anwar out was certainly part of the plan. ) for Mahathir to board the ship by drafting the blueprint for a potential Anwar-Mahathir collaboration together with Lim Kit Siang of DAP. Besides the historical fall, he was the man behind many of Malaysian political intrigues from the birth of INVOKE to the systematical removal of Khalid Ibrahim as the Selangor's Chief Minister through Langkah Kajang. His speedy ascension in PKR despite cherished by the designated 8th Prime Minister in waiting and family was the reason for the divisive split in PKR according to many of Azmin's camp whom might be envious of his ability and potential rising.

Yet, despite the maneuver, his version of Malaysia Baru (including the setting for the petrol ceiling at RM 1.50) as well as his hope in envisaging his mentor Anwar Ibrahim to helm the government are now slowly crumbling away with vague succession dateline and a huge potential of losing the next general election to the UMNO-PAS alliance. This got Rafizi to get out of the box as Malaysia witness the firing of the first minister in 18 months since the new coalition of Pakatan Harapan came to rule. Yet, could it be Maszlee's departure that ignited his sudden comeback?

...Not many noticed that Maszlee played a significant role in Rafizi's plan. INVOKE (not Rafizi actually) had been planning a huge role to infiltrate schools (we knew because INVOKE had been silently making the move by recruiting volunteers. We initially kept this secret under wrap because we wanted to appear neutral. Now since Maszlee had been fired (not fired according to Maszlee. Not resigned either. He received a letter from the Prime Minister and under his advice, he was requested to return his duties to the Prime Minister.) and Rafizi had made himself clear of challenging Mahathir head on with a probable attempt of a forceful removal, the timing for the revelation seems ethical in nature.) with doctrines inclined to the thoughts and philosophies of PKR and DAP (it is Rafizi himself who iterated this alliance even in his latest succession threat towards Mahathir. So, it is not us who grouped these two parties together but it is Rafizi himself who coined the term. Let's just be very clear.). In order to bypass this issue without the suspicion of the Prime Minister, an arrangement definitely needed to take place through the cooperation of the Education Minister and the Deputy Minister. As the Deputy Minister is from DAP, this is quite easily sorted out but Maszlee is from BERSATU. So Maszlee is definitely the last man standing that needs to do the compromise. What these politicians went wrong were underestimating the 94 years old head of state who had a natural habit of micro monitoring all the moves that is politically detrimental to his side. He knew all that happen behind the curtains, too quite an extent including the fact that Maszlee's heart and inclination had been compromised. There you go, Maszlee was spirited away (spirited away, our preferred phrase though not too suitable in such context.) from the cabinet....

Rafizi knew that his INVOKE time is up and he should be out of the box with his daring threat as his guerrilla style slow indoctrination will work no more. Hence he needed to use Plan B (we have no idea what is his Plan B? Perhaps we could speculate which probably includes self destructing mechanism for the PH coalition - a risky gamble depending on how desperate one of the sides trying to reach the prize. Perhaps there are other routes which we are slightly hesitate to discuss of it's nature. Lets suffice to give some credit to Rafizi that he in fact had Plan B and his Plan B itself is not just an empty threat. If Rafizi's Plan B is simply conjuring a vote of no confidence, there will always be the dissolution of the parliament to jeopardize the coalition. Empty threats and empty promises are damaging to a politician's lifeline and anybody should never try to pledge one. The more you pledge, the faster is your demise.).

Our first encounter with Rafizi was during a small gathering in Subang Jaya about 6 months before GE14. He was the main figure to give a speech with Hannah Yeoh and Liew Chin Tong. At that time, it was the early days of Mahathir's entrance into the PH camp. The idea of the speech can be broken down into two simple messages

1)...PH needed Mahathir to save the country. Najib's kleptocracy regime is a threat to the Malaysian administration and people's aspiration....

The second message are mainly further justifications

2a) Liew's defense over Anwar's and Mahathir's transgression towards the Chinese community in the early 1980s (with regards for putting Malay headmasters in Chinese schools.). With the fact that Anwar had change, Liew verbally believed that Mahathir could change too. Liew argued that Mahathir will be more lenient due to his old age and the fact that globalization (with social media) will restrict Mahathir's nature to be less dictatorial and less malevolent than the days of 1990s.

2b) Hannah was the most diplomatic among the three speakers - even went as far as justifying what Mahathir and Kit Siang could achieve despite their old age. This was in response to "dinosaur politics" being put forward by one of the audience (Wonder if she thinks the same of Ramasamy.).

2c) Rafizi was the boldest among the three with his fantasy that "since we have four parties - it is easy to control and restrain Mahathir".

Off course, we were at that time supportive of a rising Mahathir but Rafizi's domineering fantasy over Mahathir was downright farcical that could not stop us from quietly grinning in silence at the back with our hands covering our mouth. It seems our demeanor was spotted by the prying eyes of Hannah Yeoh whom subtly warned the audience "If you are taking it cynically, your friends will be cynical too. If you are taking it seriously, your friends will be serious too.". Being one of the audience, it is only appropriate for us to show our graceful mannerism, so the smiling and grinning stopped after the punching rebuke.

...The forum ended, we met Rafizi and we smiled towards each other but we could not discuss our opinion as it might be overbearing for him, Chin Tong seems more reserved but the hint from his eyes seems to suggest that he knew "more than meets the eye". Sadly, the forum by Wong Chen & team on 13th January 2020 seems to bear semblance to Rafizi's pattern of thought. Hence, we left early after arriving late as the more we hear, the more uncomfortable downsides we could pinpoint....

24 months later, it seems our giggling was spot on after all. Let us fasten our seat belts and watch how the rushing Rafizi Ramli will forcefully put Mahathir aside and save the PH coalition with Anwar putting a credible miraculous team of economy specialist and turn things around in two years (Before he starts talking about PKR and DAP unity, it seems what he meant was Lim Guan Eng and Azmin Ali did a very bad job in projecting the Malaysian economy forward, thus even before a call of unity, it seems he had made an unintentional political jibe. Now you see why politics is complicated sometimes.).

ERRATIC POLITICS

Mahathir had never been too predictable and that is consistent with the "Art of War" as predictability implies vulnerability. Though, one may discern some of his moves yet it still takes quite some time and effort to read and discern all of his moves and motives.

One of the example is the firing of Maszlee Malik. There is one clear sign which is the omission of his participation from the KL Summit list of organizers. We were puzzled because Maszlee was heavily infested in IKRAM and other Muslim's NGOs but his name was not on the list. We have guessed that Mahathir had shown dismay towards him but going as far as firing him seems to be out of the blue and may be deducible if one keeps a tab on every twist and turns on Malaysian politics including the undisclosed information which many did not realized until it happened as we discussed in the first chapter.

"...So who's next after Maszlee? We ought to fasten our seat belts tighter as we are embracing a flying automobile political experience...."

OBSESSIONS WITH NUMBERS (and "half-baked" analysis)

Those who are verse with politics will somehow agree that Anwar had a penchant of equating support with numbers, let's refer to history with his numerous attempts in using this same old trick of boosting his support but not brave enough in making the breaking move. This does not include the verbal pledges he vowed during his speeches or rumors of him convincing others and how those rumors appeared into some of their speeches. Some of his "fantasy numbers drawn from half baked analysis" eventually are supported by half baked analysts.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2008/04/14/anwar-we-have-the-numbers-to-form-govt

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3019148/anwar-ibrahim-says-he-got-numbers-become-malaysian-pm

https://www.thestar.com.my/opinion/columnists/analysis/2019/10/28/numbers-game-to-climax-soon

https://www.thestar.com.my/opinion/columnists/its-just-politics/2019/11/03/look-whos-counting

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/502961

The addiction towards numbers seems to be affecting Rafizi in new year 2020, though he admitted it could not "rock the boat". So what is the point of mentioning numbers to begin with?

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2020/01/09/rafizi-sees-anwar-as-pm-in-2021-with-enough-time-to-win-ge15/

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/506574

...Just two cents, if keeping up a straightforward pledge on petrol price at RM 1.50 seems to be problematic regardless of all the unforeseen circumstances, there will be SERIOUS unprecedented problems to haul 112 members of parliament to vote for the same cause at the same time. Humans have the tendency to change their mind as well as the habit in making vague pledges and allegiance in securing their personal and political interest. Why would an elected Minister or Deputy vote for a change in administration by risking their job, not to mention the risk of the party's de-registration or potential skeleton in the closet cases being opened for investigation? What other lucrative offers that could possibly override the financial and political interest they embrace at the moment? Lets assume a better financial offer was made in the name of solidarity, such move risks of being criminal in nature. Out of the 112 MPs needed to override the current Prime Minister, can we assume there are no moles in servitude to any of the other side? If old party comrades could show huge divisive split during their political peak, it is of the wildest dream to expect a unity of support from merely coalition alone. Malaysian politics is all about subjugation despite their verbal pledge of idealism (one with true idealism will not succumb to the idea of using Mahathir to oust Najib. So, please stop the holy bullshit because holy and bullshit will never co-exist.). Similar political ideals? Do you see anybody voluntarily resigned from their ministerial posts?....

...Thus, when Rafizi confidently states that out of the 92 elected MPs of PKR and DAP, the amount of renegades will be no more than 5, that is equivalent of INVOKE making half baked analysis that PAS will never win a single seat in GE14 which turned out to be 18 despite Malay seats are split into 3 corners. Conclusion, it is purely psychological and when one does too many "red herrings" which does not keep up with facts and expectations, the crisis will start to dampen a potential rising and in some cases falling (like the case of PH as promises are failing to be materialized and realized.)....

BATTLE OF THE TIGERS (Communist Tiger Versus Paper Tiger Mahathir)

Let's assume Anwar had his 112 verbal pledges but needed to put the verbal support into test, below are the list of potential candidates that might initiate a vote of no confidence :

0) Anwar himself (this would be so lame, create a motion by himself for himself. This would be a laughing stock since it shows that he does not have the real support.). Nurul Izzah (this is lame as well. Imagine your daughter creating a motion for you.). Dr Wan Azizah (this is pretty lame as well. Your own wife.).

1) Rafizi Ramli (not available at the moment.).

2) Wong Chen (a close associate of Rafizi, well respected by members of the opposition. Same party as Anwar which does not actually translate to a support from the PH coalition. His move may not be symbolically strong enough that Anwar had great support.). Anwar's faction without ministerial posts such as William Leong, Chang Lik Kang and Nik Nazmi but they don't seem to be respected enough to command the force.

3) Ronnie Liu (this is the man who spark the controversy in labeling Mahathir as "Paper Tiger". He himself admitted that he is proud of his Communist Heritage. Thus it would be interesting to put to test how brave is this Communist Tiger Ronnie Liu in challenging the Paper Tiger Mahathir by initiating the vote of no confidence against Mahathir. We knew Mahathir had always been the unpredictable force since the time of Tunku and once again going head on against Najib in 2018. It would be interesting to see this battle unfold as Malaysian politics had so far been purely rhetoric.

...Let's hope Mr Anthony Loke will not go as far as condemning his comrades with a one paragraph argument and drag him to the disciplinary committee for his failure to discuss with the leadership and have his initiation withdrawn....

While he may be brave and show strong representation from certain faction of DAP, a twist to relate Anwar with Chinese Communist Chauvinism by PAS and UMNO will be damaging towards Anwar's support.). Other DAP representatives must first obtain the consent from Lim Kit Siang. Those who command forces had ministerial post while those without will certainly provide reasons for Mahathir to raise questions to the DAP Supremo. So it is probably a zero summation game from the DAP side.

7) Nazri Aziz or Khairy Jamaluddin. These are his only two best bets. However, it seems both are distancing themselves from Anwar as UMNO is closing rank and gaining the citizen's momentum at the moment. So why risk of making allegiance with Anwar and being hated at the end of the day?

Anwar must get an MP from PAS, UMNO or at least AMANAH to initiate the motion in proclaiming his strength to challenge Mahathir. However, we don't sense any present support from any of these sets of MPs willingly to initiate a motion for him.

THE PIVOTAL SPEAKER DATO ARIF (& the vague interpretation of the constitution)

Dato Arif in 2010 overturned the ban on a controversial book published by Sisters in Islam which was imposed by the Ministry of Home Affairs. He is a very wise man.

https://ms.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sisters_in_Islam

Now, let's assume that someone initiated the motion and Anwar had 112 verbal pledges at some time with their sobriety unquestioned. In the case of Hee Loy Sian and Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail versus Speaker Pandikar Amin in tabling a motion of no confidence against Najib Razak,...

...Najib was theoretically at fault for failing to provide sufficient details regarding 1MDB and donation that follows....

The speaker theoretically had the right to reject the motion. Assume the vote is against Mahathir and not the PH government, it should be accepted by Dato Arif if and only if the motion was backed by a convincing argument and evidences. In the case of Pandikar, Pandikar was lenient towards Dr Wan Azizah, Pandikar could in fact do a merry go round in requesting evidences with regards to 1MDB. Assume the arguments below were used to table the motion. They were not much of substance.

(...From the speeches by Wong Chen in APW Bangsar on the 13th January 2020, the speech sounded something like this - the transition from Mahathir to Anwar is imperative due to the fact that domestic (local) tycoons are unwilling to fork out their money to churn the domestic economy which hinders international investors to participate.

...Investors demand political stability....

First of all, Wong Chen needed to provide statistics to back up his arguments and testimonials from tycoons that his facts correlates with the statistics (which we doubt will ever happen.).

Second, Wong Chen needed to prove that Anwar is indeed a better choice than Mahathir without being prejudice of Mahathir's age.

...Flimsy argument such as one by Chang Lik Kang (joining the same speech with Wong Chen) going as far as suggesting that PH doesn't need a 98 years old to lead General Election 15 doesn't seem fair as PH succeeded in the General Election 14 by betting on the same 93 years old. Why must a 70+ years old Anwar be chosen? Anwar is not a middle aged man anymore. Seems not much ground in using age as an argument....

Third, lets us suppose that the Malaysian economy is in a dwindling state due to political instability,...

...shouldn't Anwar and team assist the country's economy by backing out from the transition struggle and wait until the next General Election 15 for the citizen's priority?...

Fourth, is our elected government controlled by domestic tycoons (whom were given them leeway to be rich despite their money-making acumen.)? Shouldn't it be the other way round, statesmen controlling tycoons? If that is the case, Wong Chen is putting a statement that the people's elected representative from the Prime Minister to the cabinet are puppets of the domestic tycoons as they are holding the transition power in their hands. (Please don't compare Malaysia to United States capitalism. United States capitalist expands their business worldwide, our domestic tycoons aren't having such a potential.)

...In the case in which our government are owned by the tycoons, the current administration should have their heads hanged by the gallows. Should we fear of our lives for offending tycoons?...

Fifth, it was put forward by Prof Radzi Tajuddin or one of the speakers with Wong Chen that

a) we shouldn't focus on great men politics. Well, for a start, the whole forum is a jibe by putting all the blame on Mahathir while glorifying the potential of Anwar as the better candidate. So, it is back to square one on great men politics.

b) we need a leader for all and one who will be managing the talents. Seriously Anwar? Anwar with his hat trick on Azmin, Saiful and Yusoff. Whether, he was framed or whatever is the case, the hat trick seems to indicate poor judgement in identifying good character and talent. Well, Anwar could have a draw with Mahathir's record for putting down most of his deputies.

Sixth, the forum argued that "the power structure" and cabinet will remain the same.

...What is the justification to the argument? Are all the ministers performing better than the Prime Minister or is it just a move to replace Mahathir with Anwar while the cabinet members remain unchanged to appease more MPs for the vote of no confidence?...

It seems there are not much substances for the swift change in leadership.)

...While Wong Chen draws a very good argument that a "gentlemen agreement" must be honored. We (including us), the citizen (not just confine to the ideology, philosophy and standards of Republic Bangsar.) are politically unaware as well as disgusted by the continuous uncalled and undesirable "gentlemen agreement" that is reserved for the political play of certain factional elites. The current coalition should focus on honoring "the coalition agreement with the people" and not busy in prioritizing to honor the "two elderly (can we really apply gentlemen to Anwar and Mahathir? We think elderly is more appropriate.) agreement". You are paid by the people, to work and die for the people. Your legacy must be honored by the people and probably by patriotic local tycoons....

In the lights of the self-centered and coalition-centered arguments provided by the Pro-Anwar MPs without convincing enough to elevate the people's interest (especially us), we find that the Speaker has insufficient reasons to table the motion and for any MPs to support the motion.

*Never have we mentioned that Mahathir is an angel but surely he is our best asset in orchestrating the political landscape accordingly to our desires. Thus, we admit our bias for wishing Mahathir to helm the government for the mean time until a leader in our image has emerged. We apologize to all our readers. LONG LIVE MAHATHIR.

A PUSH FOR SWORN LOYALTY

Due to the current political instability suggested by certain side of the ruling coalition. It is imperative that

...all the ministers must sworn an oath of loyalty to the Malaysian people, the King and the Prime Minister. Failure in keeping the oath and multiple attempts to instigate for the removal of the Prime Minister by all means for self-centered reasons is an act of betrayal to the country and a demonstration of violation to the constitution as the Prime Minister was appointed by the King. Unless, the Prime Minister demonstrated betrayal towards the interest of the people or the King, the Ministers must show utmost loyalty to the one appointed by the King....

MOMENTUM & TIME

Time and momentum are of utmost importance in politics. Najib's fall attributed to the correct momentum at the right time to his fall - it is exceptionally hard for such a scenario to occur. Mahathir is a very well seasoned politician with great political acumen to sniff any instability that might affect his position. Unless, there is a powerful "silver bullet", it is difficult to start the ball rolling. Najib and Mahathir are of different personas with Mahathir being more bold in executing those who are non-aligned to his interest. Therefore, the chances to create such an environment is very slim despite Pro PKR and DAP grassroot camps had been creating negative online sentiments towards Mahathir.

Let's talk about time. In the case of Hee Loy Sian & Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail versus Speaker Pandikar Amin tabling a motion of no confidence against Najib Razak,...

...Pandikar never proceeded the motion in the next parliamentary session. This sets precedence for the current speaker to initiate the exact move with government matters taking precedence over such no confidence motion....

In politics, a period of 4 to 6 weeks would be suffice for unforeseen circumstances to manifest.

THE UNFORESEEN CIRCUMSTANCES

As time passes by for the votes to take place, many unprecedented moves could have taken place. Moves beyond the wildest dream. So, for simple minded politicians splurging insensible statement with analysis drawn from simple arithmetic and baseless statistics, be prepared for an unexpected lifetime backlash.

We have seen politicians accidentally and unintentionally being charged on grounds of terrorism. What other severe charges could be imposed out of the blue, one may wonder? Will the timing coincide with the voting? Surely, nobody knows.

...Let us envisage what other cards that may counter the rising below....

CIRCUMSTANCES THAT TEST THE TENACITY OF LOYALIST

PKR is split. It is an open knowledge but what if the leader's camp is put through a tougher test? One of the unprecedented move and unforeseen circumstances (clear sign as indicated by the current political landscape with the statutory declaration of Yusoff Rawther himself. Phew. Luckily the Attorney General threw the harassment suit out due to lack of evidence. However, one may ponder, what may transpire next?) could be a further test on Anwar's camp by slotting the Prime Minister in waiting into a temporary custody from 1 day to 3 days and then 7 days.

...The tenacity test is to determine the loyalty of the ministers in Anwar's camp. Will they resign from their jobs for Anwar? How much will they fight back for Anwar? Or will they just turn when they are succumbed to great pressure and the potentially lost of their current dreams and desires?....

Perhaps the accused will be freed of all charges but the psychological impact and stress on the accused and his team might lead to other undesired consequences. ( The warlord Cao Cao during his lost in the Battle of Red Cliff had his armies reduced from 1 million to a staggering of less than 100 men. The less than 100 men are his true loyalists that helped him built his dynasty 2 to 3 decades later. A recent good example is Najib Razak, how many of his ex-staffs was pitted against him in the current 1MDB trial? Nearly 98% including close associates from the likes of Datuk Amhari and Arul Kanda.)

So, to those of you out there constrained by time and resources wishing to secure the political power, Good Luck.

Malaysian Political Update : Some of our comments on Wong Chen's Forum in APW Bangar on the 13th of January 2020 are interweave into the article above. His speech sounded like points to be made for the tabling of the motion. Hence, the article is partially how we think it will unfold. Still to continue on the forum, certain parts of the speech was slightly befuddling in nature by Chang Lik Kang. Chang Lik Kang quoted something like this

"...political stability is important. I was on the Defense Committee (basically involved in the 6 undelivered helicopters) but as there were rumors of Hishamudin's ascension as the Prime Minister, the defense staffs involved in the deal dared not come forward....". Then he went on with analogies from Qing era.

The demoralizing part was

1) Why can't you as an MP, Nik Nazmi (also in the committee), Liew Chin Tong (deputy defense), Mat Sabu (defense), Dr Mahathir (the Prime Minister) and Dr Wan Azizah (the Deputy Prime Minister) put the effort to implicate or coerce the defense staffs involved to co-operate?

...Are you hinting on Team Jho Low 2.0 under Hishammudin involving in a scandal which are immune to be arrested or being put forward for a trial by the current security forces and government judiciary? Are the Malaysian elected representatives, the civil servants or both incompetent and demoralize to put an end to the scandal? The failure to secure the people's fund and interest implies this set of questions....

2) Or is it in fact the implication of your statement simply agrees with the opposition under Barisan Nasional that the previous corruption in the Ministry of Defense are simply "red herring" to win the people's vote? All perception play again? Unforeseen and unspoken circumstances again?

3) Is this Mahathir's fault again? Not the coalition's fault? Or Najib's fault? So whose head must roll? The people's money are defrauded again?