The Financial Debunker

On a facade, everything is splendid with images of a workable alliance portrayed by strong handshakes and smiling faces, deep down however the tension can be clearly felt. The political divide has created an inequilibrium political landscape such that the next movements including the secure position of Anwar Ibrahim as the 8th prime minister can be hardly determined. Let us unroll what might unfold -

1) The China Factor - despite Mahathir and DAP had been trying very hard to suppress the fact that the Sino-Malaysia relations is not in a disaster, only the ignorant will be impervious of the fact.

...Clearly, the ailing disaster is translated to cuts of commodities exports with BASIC retaliatory actions haven't been executed effectively from reduction in tourism, the pulling of Chinese Renminbi clearing house and AliBaba Hub in S.E.A, complete phasing out of commodity purchases from palm oil (with Indonesia as current substitution while expansions of South American palm oil estates owned by Chinese Companies as future substitution) to Durians as well as mass selling of Malaysian Properties (Probable as the Chinese Government have their tentacles everywhere) to convey a simple message that "Nobody messes with China"...

...The more ADVANCED retaliatory actions includes the following

1.1) long term cyber penetration on government and corporate facilities.
1.2) supporting Malaysian competitors - Indonesia and Philippines that intend for the secession of Sabah and Sarawak to be absorbed into their territory with deals on better pricing for palm oil and other commodities as an exchange.

1.3) supporting sanctions and economical embargo on Malaysian soil should Malaysia break many of the agreements.
1.4) working with current "Your Enemy of My Enemy is My Friend" as ties with Singapore and Saudi Arabia had already gone sour.
1.5) meddling into Malaysian political affairs either directly or indirectly.

1.6)...The MOST ADVANCED retaliatory action is to implicate, blame, create or even turn a blind eye on the probability of an Asian Spring should Malaysia shows signs of opening Military Bases to Western forces or Malaysian Sea Waters to Western proxies particularly the United States navy and submarines as a threat to China's security. 

In a simple phrase - Mahathir's Key Performing Index in extending the good economical foundation left by Najib with also a target to increase all of Malaysia's asset, revenue and reserves with key factors determined by China is crucial for himself to be re-elected in GE15 as well as for the PH alliance to remain relevant. A disparity in numbers relatively to the BN administration will demand a more vicious propaganda to incriminate BN. How long can such narrative last?

3) How time will reshape ​the political landscape will be demonstrated here. Here Time Factor takes precedence as discussion before Anwar Factor. 

Assume Mahathir lives until the age of 110 (a number slightly far fetched but at a healthy age of 93 is quite impressive and not to be dismissed) years old which translates to another 4 elections, Mahathir might outlived Anwar, Najib and Abdullah just like Mahathir had outlived Sanusi. Anwar wont stand a chance at all. Thus the argument that time is insulting Mahathir does not actually stand.

 

Obviously, the faster the passing, the odds for Anwar to be Prime Minister will be higher with the odds declining over time.

Assume Mahathir lives until the next GE15 - a shorter time span, then the key will be looking into Mahathir chess work.

3.1) UMNO is the biggest threat at the moment. To defeat UMNO is strategically simple. Denounce UMNO as illegal like BERSATU, convert UMNO grassroots into BERSATU with BERSATU taking over all of UMNO's role and the continuous defamation against Najib and Rosmah with questionable evidences in court. Even a strong 1998 Anwar could be pacified, Najib will be a piece of cake. Breaking up the UMNO warlords, playing with their greed and they will return to Mahathir. Civil servants and Malays in the rural heartland can be brainwashed that BERSATU is the future for the Malays, this will enhance his grip further.

3.2) The next threat is PAS. PAS is slightly more complicated. 1st they must be liberalized. This is an ongoing process with the slow suppression on religious school. Make sure the Northern Peninsula states are in a dire condition and that will encourage the youngsters travelling to urban cities for jobs. Once in an urban environment, they will be slowly imbued in PH philosophy and this will act as the catalyst to turn their parents into supporting PH. PAS will be weaken in days to come which explains the existence of Mat Sabu's faction. PAS suffering another break is not ruled out. WORST is Mahathir could employ a secret high impact tactic to shatter the alliance of UMNO PAS or UMNO PAS (PKR) if they are materialize. 
 

3.3) With the MACC and MOF under the constant watch of Mahathir, PKR finances is under 24 hours watch. With defense and home affairs Ministries under Mahathir's control, PKR is like a mouse watched by a cat - Anwar is the mouse observed by Mahathir the cat.

3.4) 3.1 to 3.3 demonstrates how Mahathir requires stability to prepare his future chess work to checkmate Anwar. First of all, you will need a justification to renegade on a deal which the Malaysian quote nowadays as U-turn and secondly is a list of potential lovable candidates that can be groomed to be loved by the people yet ensuring the continuation of your legacy and future associate's  interest remain of the highest priority. So who are the lined ups? 

i) Maszlee Malik - honest, obedient and bendable yet too naive when dealing the UEC and black shoes issues. He is suitable as a PM for just one or two terms like Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.  He is not being too favored at the moment but he is the current best choice to prepare for the BEST candidate. He is not the BEST candidate but he is as good as warming the seat for the BEST candidate which fits Mahathir's grand plan. Hence the reason why he is selected for the Minister of Education portfolio. 

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ii) Marina Mahathir - the controversial figure. You either love her or hate her. Her recent LGBT hype and Western portrayed characteristics could deter certain Malay groups in ensuring a smooth transition what about a permanent stronghold plus she is a woman. Can she hold on just for 5 years before handing it over to the BEST candidate? Can a liberalized Malaysia this 5 years accelerate her career? LOVED by DAP especially Lim Guan Eng (she was the one persuading Anwar to helm him as Minister of Finance) and Amanah. Many sees her as a good choice especially among the non-Malays. PKR have to endorse her. That is the major problem here. 

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iii) Mukhriz Mahathir - the Daddy's candy eye as that is how the people perceived. His ascension will be troublesome, he is waiting on the sideline and he seems gladly taking the role actually,

iv) Muhyiddin Yassin - ultra Malay but is under Chemotherapy. The non-Malays are not too fond of him. This will shake PH core which are half dominated by non-Malays.

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v) Tariq Ismail. He looks ideal especially with his political heritage. He is the most humble among all. So what are his shortfalls? His uncle used to enjoy criticising Mahathir and he looks soft or perhaps undecided in his journey with BERSATU as he was initially rejected by UMNO Johor. He is married but not to Mahathir's granddaughter. He will be an enigmatic factor that poses a challenge to Mukhriz and Syed Saddiq. He is first named to contest, then dropped from the contesting list. He is now groomed and working in PMO. 

vi) Syed Saddiq. The girls love him. DAP and Amanah love him. The youngsters love him. Mahathir loves him. His granddaughter loves him. Must he become Prime Minister at such a young age? Imagine the red eyes from jealous old men. Dating the granddaughter after becoming a Member of Parliament. Wedding is to follow after becoming the Prime Minister. To those who never plan your strikes, his great days to come are for your eyes to enviously and probably insidiously followed. 

vII) Azmin Ali. Not a chance at all especially when he tries his best to snub Mahathir from being selected as the choice for Prime Minister candidacy under the PH banner. He is there just to confuse Anwar and create a ruckus in PKR before eventually end up probably an inferior version of Daim. Is this not a clear evidence that Mahathir is still not very fond of Anwar?

So the chess work is pretty simple, Mahathir needs time to stabilize eveything before passing to Maszlee or Marina for 5 years and have Syed Saddiq to rule for another 22 years. PKR is irrelevant if UMNO can be swallowed by BERSATU with DAP and AMANAH willingly to bond along. 

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2) The last factor is Anwar. So what is Anwar? What not who. Anwar was never made the Minister of Defense or Home Affairs, his appointment as deputy was only to keep him by his side just like warfare theory goes "Keep your friends close, keep your enemy closer". Anwar knew about this which explained his choice of actions in 1998. The Anwar today is wiser. He has been making the right moves. History repeats itself in 2018, nobody from the list of qualified PKR's Member of Parliament were made the Minister of Defense or Home Affairs. Worst, the top two candidates Rafizi Ramli and Tian Chua were indirectly de-listed -  a method to drive a wedge among the PKR highest echelon. The argument is consistent that Anwar will never be destined to be APPOINTED by Mahathir as the Prime Minister. The solution is straight-forward

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...Anwar must persuade Mahathir to appoint him as Minister of Defense or Minister of Home Affairs to test Mahathir's sincerity...

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Surely the Cancer stricken Muhyiddin Yassin and Culinary Chef also Politician Mat Sabu turned Minister of Defense would not mind to vacate those seats for a political scion like Anwar, or perhaps they do really mind? 

...or else, is it not obvious? 

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