The Financial Debunker

Date of Release : 10 October 2020

 

​

Desperate DRAFT

​

 

​

*Sequel to "Kerajaaan Cabut Lokap" or The "Prison Break" Government. & Strategy Series 2 - Hedging the Impeachment Mechanism 

 

 

 

ANWAR'S ODDS FOR PREMIERSHIP & DISSOLUTION OF THE PARLIAMENT

 

 

 

With the Agong granting Anwar an audience next week, the odds for Anwar to game Muhyiddin will be much higher. The Blue Wedding article had discussed thoroughly the psychological impact the Agong could impart on the Malaysian political landscape. As the Agong is readily receiving Anwar (especially with all the succession rumors making rounds), the political implications are as follows
 

1) The Agong is creating a leadership option with Anwar probably taking over from Muhyiddin in mind. The Agong is probably not overly fond of Muhyiddin. Is his subject "The Orang Kaya Syahbandar" playing a crucial role in his decision making process?
2) Anwar had receive royal blessings to advance in his political endeavor. Hence putting more politicians to suck into his political sphere of influence. This puts Muhyiddin in a much shakier ground.

3) What's inside the Agong's mind?

 

a) Is the Agong repeating the previous PH fallout for PN? Is he pushing a new candidate for the premiership? Is it Anwar or someone else out of the blue (previously it was the unexpected Muhyiddin) that he particular had in mind?

b) Did the Agong anticipated a fallout? Will he use the fallout to push for the dissolution of The Parliament?

A conversation with a loyalist of Najib Razak aka Lokman Adam who was once a staunch loyalist to Anwar before he shifted his allegiance revealed that Anwar will put the idea of National Reconciliation (whether from his personal experience or words pass to him through Najib remains unclear.) as his main agenda for leadership. Lokman even spent part of his career detained under the Internal Security Act during Mahathir's administration for Anwar.  The topic was discussed 2 years ago when Mahathir was in power and the reason Anwar did not make the move was because he feared Mahathir would initiate the move first - according to Lokman. (since Anwar had initiated the move seemingly with the participation of Najib Razak now, it is not unethical to put this into writing as it seems this is an open secret now.)

 

​

Out of the blue question, is Lokman Adam orchestrating an Anwar Political Ascendacy - Najib Bail Out Plan by joining hands with the sudden comeback of Anwar's aide Ezam Mohd Nor (whom had been circling Malaysia under GERAK 98) recently?

In simpler terms, the administration propose by Anwar is a "happy family administration" with Najib Razak (UMNO) and Lim Kit Siang (DAP) finally hugging each other at the grand finale. The idea is exceptionally magnificent until one started envisioning how the Ministerial portfolios should be distributed not to mention the clashes of political philosophies and beliefs. The last question would be "how such initiation will return the mandate to the people (as DAP loves speaking out in such a strong tone)?" except making Anwar the Prime Minister with PKR readily absorbing UMNO into the fold. Since "all are friends" in politics, there would also be no need for election anymore. As long as Anwar remains the Prime Minister, all the other principles can be adjusted accordingly. Can't blame Anwar anyway, if Mahathir and Muhyiddin are allowed to play "Mix and Match", on what grounds must Anwar be faulted?

However, "Must there be a political instability each time a politician declares that he has the numbers and the Supreme Ruler aka the Agong vouches to grant an audience?"

Enough said, it seems all these leaders are politically unfit to rule, therefore it would be best to proceed constitutionally. FORTUNATELY, THE BRITISH COLONIST LEFT THE MALAYS WITH THE CONSTITUTION, ELSE MALAYSIAN POLITICS WILL BE IN A MUCH HEAVIER MESS.

​

​

​

Limitations of The Agong 1 = The Constitution never states that the Agong has the prerogative to interview the set of MPs. The MPs should prioritize the interest of the people and must only opt for the change of an administration through The Parliament. It simply means the MP can deny for an audience with the Agong. It is theoretically unconstitutional for the MPs to discuss their preferences in front of the Agong as that is not drafted under The Constitution. Not to mention that such preferences will alter the odds significantly in favor of whom the Agong had in mind during the selection process. Thus creating bias in return. It is imperative to stop such political play that will slowly erode and undermine the validity of The Constitution.

The people voted for representatives in The Parliament, it must be done accordingly within the walls of Parliament. Sorry, not Istana Negara. The function of Istana Negara is to provide safety measures when The Parliamentary System had failed, not to meddle the affairs under the roof of The Parliament.


Limitations of The Agong 2 = The Agong is unfit to judge from the words of Anwar himself whether his majority is valid or otherwise to initiate a move that will decide/ or proven detrimental to the future of The Parliament or the Prime Minister. The only way forward for the Agong is to initiate an Urgent Parliamentary Seating or "Sidang Parlimen Tergempar". ( This will be fairer to the public and voters as the number of hands shown in The Parliament could open the eyes of the public for them to conduct their version of "Mix and Match" - "Oh, indeed Najib supported Anwar!!!! He held his hands up." or "Wow, Mahathir supported Muhyiddin!!!!!". Since most of the politicians had failed to be good leaders, perhaps they could try entertaining the public so that the public could observe how low and degrading some of them will succumb for the pursue of power. )

With regards to this, Anwar must set a Vote of No Confidence motion against Muhyiddin in The Parliament. This will be the fairest to the voters and if he is a true leader, he shall not fear and cower behind the cloaks of the Agong. Isn't he influential and deserving to be loved in the public's eyes?

 

Only The Parliament can denounce Muhyiddin's government. Period. The Agong could only play a pivotal role to increase Anwar's odds against Muhyiddin. Period.

 

PLEASE READ THE LAST SECTION.

​

​

 

THE INGENUITY OF HANIFF KHATRI 

 

 

 

This will be the holy grail of the discussion.

https://www.sinarharian.com.my/article/71692/KHAS/Peralihan-Kerajaan/Agong-boleh-bubar-Parlimen-tanpa-nasihat-PM-Peguam

Can the Agong dissolve the Parliament without the advise of the Prime Minister? The above article written by a Right Wing legal group said YES. Other lawyers and lawmakers however will say NO. The underlying contention point spurns from the fact on the interpretations of both Article 40 and 55, and whether they should be read concurrently or otherwise. The validity of these two statements have not been attested and it will be solely decided by The Federal Court aka Tengku Maimun.

 

​
 

Limitations of The Agong 3 = The current judiciary scenario however inclines to the fact that the Agong's decision and purview can be heavily challenged. The Royal Pardon by the previous Agong was legally challenged for having the incorrect Board of Pardon (led by Mr Haniff Khatri for challenging the legality of the Royal Pardon.). Therefore, when the High Court sets the decision to possibly rule out the Pardon granted by the previous Agong, this implies that the role of advisors play a powerful weight to dictate the role/significance/stature of the Agong. With regards to the dissolution of The Parliament, this decision made by the High Court consequently puts more weight on the Prime Minister's position to have a higher merit to act as an advisor to the Agong. The Prime Minister would have a stronger case to argue that his advice would provide a better political stability for the nation. Not to mention, the decision by the High Court simply implies that the Agong could err in his judgement (with regards to the Royal Pardon. Removing Muhyiddin out of the picture, a candidate selected by the Agong himself could arguably imply that the Agong had err in his judgement too, proving him unwise to ensure the continual political stability of his nation.) - rendering his merit for any prerogative to decide the fate of a nation.

An overturned on the Royal Pardon would prove worse, it implies that the decision of the Agong could be render invalid under certain conditions. 

If Muhyiddin was the wrong choice after a few months, what makes Anwar to be the right one in the eyes of the Agong? Will Anwar won't be wrong again? In the event that Anwar is another wrong one and another candidate comes up with another number in 6 months, must the Agong entertain a new potential Prime Minister once again? And Malaysians to have 4 Prime Ministers in less than 5 years? It is imperative for the Agong to protect the sanctity of The Palace and the image of the Royalties before they are being viewed as overprotective, overbearing or unwise in nature. Unless, the Prime Minister made substantial errors in his governance, more leeway should be given to the current Prime Minister out of fairness. Anwar had to exercise more patience since he lost in his last ride.

 

 

THE ENGLISH VERSION OF THE CONSTITUION

​

​

​

Can the Agong stop the dissolution of the Parliament if the advise of the Prime Minister was otherwise?

​

Limitations of The Agong 4 =The Malay version granted a YES as Article 40 2) b) states "tidak memperkenankan permintaan bagi pembubaran Parlimen". The English version granted  a NO. The English version states "the withholding of consent to a request for the dissolution of the Parliament". It never stated that the Agong has the right to bar the dissolution of the Parliament. Withhold is different from the word never consented or "bar the consent". The Malay version took the simplest way out by equating withhold as "tidak memperkenankan". The exact word for withhold is "menahan". Both words have very different meaning. Withhold implies stopping an action for a period of time - Example : University of Malaya withhold the degree of Mr Wong Yan Ke. University of Malaya never dare to write off Mr Wong Yan Ke and put a note out "never consented the degree to Mr Wong Yan Ke". "tidak memperkenan" has the connotation of disagreeing/disavowing and not consenting. This is not within the limit of the  Agong whether he agrees, disagrees or has other opinion. Bound by the constitution, all he had was the power to withhold for an unknown reasonable amount of time and provide a time barrier against the Prime Minister. It was drafted only as a symbolic gesture to respect the Supreme Ruler. Perhaps the Federal Court should revise the wordings for their Bahasa Melayu version of the Constitution.

Since The Constitution was derived during the Colonial times, definitely the English one upholds more merit to determine The Constitutional's validity.

*Update 14.11 - 10 October 2020 - Why is this an important point of contention? Fahmi Fadzil urges Muhyiddin to give up his position to make way for Anwar. Why? He knew Zahid might be the Prime Minister with Anwar suffering a great lost should the Parliament is dissolved. Therefore, Fahmi wanted Muhyiddin to yield the position to Anwar without having to go through a General Election. Why is Fahmi worried? Aren't they both friends with Zahid readily to give up the Prime Minister post to Anwar in the event UMNO won dramatically? Why didn't Fahmi trust Zahid? With Muhyiddin having a better say for the dissolution of the Parliament, Muhyiddin could pressure for a better justifications towards the Agong to consent immediately for the dissolution of the Parliament (by arguing for the sake of the people's behalf).

That being said, Muhyiddin had a better leverage to press Anwar out and pave way for Zahid (by arranging other political demands). Hence, putting himself a more pivotal role as the kingmaker than the Agong himself concurrently creating a more powerful wedge between Anwar and Zahid for the premiership contention.
 

MOVING FORWARD CONSTITUTIONALLY​

​

​

 

The correct way to move forward is to convince for an URGENT PARLIAMENTARY SEATING and allow the sanctity of The Parliament to take course.

 

Thus, it is the job of The Speaker (as highlighted in the first article on The Power of The Speaker.) to side the people (not to side UMNO, PKR, DAP, PH or BN. It is none of The Speaker's business if UMNO is being bullied by BERSATU or otherwise as Lokman putted it. It is not his business if there will be no future for BN or PH if this current administration persist.). Anwar must argue compellingly "Why his version of administration and list of cabinet ministers" will deliver better leadership than the current Muhyiddin's. It is also within the wisdom of The Speaker whether to concede for the motion to pass or otherwise. Anwar must also declare that his version of leadership will be impartial towards those who have to go through a fair trial without any interruptions as his initiation is tainted with a legacy to save many political leaders from scandals. Finally, he must explain his grand plan of National Reconciliation to bring UMNO (the current rumors now is that UMNO is being brought into the fold while people's mandate in GE14 was to thwart UMNO) and DAP (Anwar's long time ally) into the fold. If his argument is lack in conviction like it had always been, the Prime Minister can dissolve the Parliament even if Anwar had the majority.

​

The stakes for Anwar is extremely high - for if he failed this endeavor, he would be commemorated as the man who ejected Mahathir and PH (though is unfair to blame on him) out of the administration as well as burning PH (including PKR) to the ground. Who are his voters base in GE 15? Malay-Muslims Right Wing voters base like UMNO, PAS and BERSATU? How is Anwar trying to convince the Non-Malay voters on PH aspirations when Mahathir himself was clearly showing stronger disdain and distaste towards Najib and Zahid while he is embracing all under his banner? Convince with National Reconciliation? 

 

There is no need for Muhyiddin to concede to Anwar. Muhyiddin could demand Anwar to concede to him with some other mediocre "Minister" level job. Nevertheless, such concession will imply that Muhyiddin is giving credit to Anwar. Thus begs the question "Why must Muhyiddin concede to Anwar and assist him to be politically relevant?".

In conclusion, Muhyiddin does not need to resign (or make the same mistakes like Mahathir) or concede to whatever designated Royal Accords that is unwritten in The Constitution. He is however bound to act within the purview of The Constitution.

 

​

1) Mahathir was misled to resign.

2) Mahathir could have doubted the Agong's number and have the validity of the numbers tested constitutionally under the purview of The Parliament.
3) Mahathir could have referred the advice from the Federal Court whether it was constitutional or otherwise for the other MPs to be interviewed by the Agong.

4) By using 3), Mahathir could rally the MPs for declining to have an audience with the Agong.

5) Mahathir could rally the people to reject political play unprescribed inside the normal political textbook.
6) Implementing steps 1) to 5), Mahathir could alter the odds significantly in sidelining Anwar and Muhyiddin, ensuring his top post remain secure. The only sad part is he didn't have The Financial Debunker to project the outlook for him. 
 

As long as Muhyiddin is not selling the national assets, opting the word "cane" out from his speech and putting back the word "sayang" as well as being more sensitive towards the plight of the people (especially the Muslims and the Malays) - Anwar will have a long winded road ahead.
 

 

 

*Is the Agong really superior? The link (Episode 73 Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Minute 40 onwards. Click the image below.) demonstrates Sima Yi's wisdom assisting Cao Pi (the eldest son of warlord Cao Cao) to override the authority of puppet ruler Emperor Xian of Han after the death of Cao Cao. Happy watching while eating Super Ring.

**Update 2.11 pm - 10 October 2020 - Game within the walls of The Parliament had more options that can be played out.

 

1) The Constitution never drafted that the MPs must vote or choose a side. The MPs could abstain from voting (being neutral). 
2) It clearly states that the Prime Minister should command a majority. Therefore, both sides might not need 112 to go through as there could be fence sitters (neutral). Example : YB X (Muhyiddin) could command majority with 90 votes versus YB Z (Anwar) with 80 votes while the rest 32 choose to abstain. Though The Constitution clearly specifies of a hung Parliament, it can simply implies that the 32 abstained MPs are antagonistic towards Muhyiddin to lead but also not in favor in choosing Anwar to lead.​ Therefore the options are more varied a) abstain (neutral), b) pro Anwar, c) pro Muhyiddin, d) against Muhyiddin but not pro Anwar (Example : Mahathir or Maszlee Malik) and e) against Anwar but not pro Muhyiddin (Examples : maybe Najib and Zahid). Mathematically, these sets of options are viable and by taking consideration of such play, the calculations and odds can change dramatically.

​

Limitations of The Agong 5 =Therefore the Agong has no right to demand the Prime Minister to have 112 majority. A Majority would be suffice to be the Prime Minister. 

​

***Update 10.57 pm - 10 October 2020 - 

​

Limitations of The Agong 6 = An interesting question being put forward is "If the Agong requires the advice from the Prime Minister to dissolve The Parliament, how can he execute an Urgent Parliamentary Seating?". This is analogous to Limitations 3 whether it should be read concurrently with Article 40 or Article 55 stands alone by itself. Within the similar chain of argument, he should beseech the advice of the Prime Minister. As a gentleman, the Prime Minister should allow for an Urgent Parliamentary Seating. Why must he fear? He would then assess Anwar's line of argument and decide if Anwar had the merit or otherwise. Buying some time until the voting date, he could gauge the atmosphere (Is the current Malay community happy with an Anwar strongly supported by the 42 MPs of DAP?) of the people whether they are very eager for Anwar to replace him or prefer his leadership. In other words, he should be sensitive enough whether he should leave or stay. The strong voices so far vouching for Anwar is the scandal tainted Zahid, non-ministerial MP Nur Jazlan and hardcore loyalist in PKR comprising of Fahmi Fadzil and Mohd Akin. There is not much of a strong wave from the people in demanding a change in administration except Anwar himself gleefully making the announcement two weeks ago. 

****Update 2.30am - 12 October 2020 - 

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/10/11/we-are-not-supporting-either-anwar-or-muhyiddin-says-pejuang

https://www.sinarharian.com.my/article/104777/BERITA/Nasional/Agong-dijangka-buat-verifikasi-dakwaan-Anwar

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/546122

1) It seems there will be a change on the distribution/numbers/statistics on the  majority as some MPs have started to announce their decision to abstain from voting. Seems the argument for Limitations of The Agong 5 is working. Mukhriz has called for voting to be conducted within The Parliamentary walls constitutionally.
2) The Agong is expected to scrutinize and verify Anwar's claim thoroughly before making any decision. Seems the argument for Limitations of The Agong 2 is working as well.
3) It seems that Anwar's bid for a National Reconciliation comprising of UMNO and DAP administration is not being well received by majority in UMNO.

4) Lokman proposes an Interim Prime Minister. BAD IDEA, it is detrimental to the economy in the long run. Anwar and the Agong will be faulted for destabilizing the country.
5) Lokman proposes an Emergency. The SILLIEST IDEA (bro). It will be the world's laughing stock. Why Emergency when there is peace and no riot? Because someone is hellbent in replacing the Prime Minister? Anwar and the Agong will be faulted for destabilizing the country.

Limitations of The Agong 7 = The Agong has no prerogative to dismiss the Prime Minister. The only way forward is through The Parliament.

​

Limitations of The Agong 8 = The Agong has no prerogative to declare an emergency without the advice from the National Security Council chaired by the Prime Minister. What advice must the Prime Minister pass to the Agong to declare an emergency? Because someone wants to replace me as Prime Minister?