Inteligence Series 13 - Soekarno & The Sea Goddess
19 November 2020
Intelligence Series 18 - A TV Series & Drone Inspired Free Fall Case
Intelligence Series 18 - A TV Series & Drone Inspired Free Fall Case
Intelligence Series 18 - A TV Series & Drone Inspired Free Fall Case
Intelligence Series 18 - A TV Series & Drone Inspired Free Fall Case
Intelligence Series 18 - A TV Series & Drone Inspired Free Fall Case
The Financial Debunker
Strategy Series 2.1 - The "Prison Break" Government
Date of Release : 24 September 2020
Desperate DRAFT
*"Kerajaaan Cabut Lokap" or The "Prison Break" Government.
**Sequel to Strategy Series 2 - Hedging the Impeachment Mechanism
NUMBER SHOWS "Anwar Doesn't have The Numbers"
Anwar had always been obsessed with numbers, this section had been thoroughly discussed in one of our article. A simple calculation/analysis demonstrates the fact that Anwar's number is pretty much "fluctuating/lack of substance" and may result with the dissolution of the Malaysian Parliament (with Zahid likely to be crowned as the final champion in this Malaysian Game of Thrones).
Numbers Not In Favour Of Anwar
Bersatu = 31 (led by Muhyiddin.)
Pejuang = 5 (led by Mahathir.)
MUDA = 1 (led by Syed Saddiq. Strongly incline to Mahathir.)
Warisan = 9 (why would Shafie Apdal backs Anwar when DAP and Mahathir are ready to back him? Very unlikely that Shafie Apdal will back Anwar. He was said to be mum.)
GPS = 18 (had made the announcement that they support Muhyiddin.)
PAS = 18 (unanimously support Muhyiddin.)
PBS + STAR = 2 (aligned to Muhyiddin.)
BN = 4 (Wee Ka Siong, Annuar Musa, Khairy Jamaluddin & Annuar Nasarah had openly supported Muhyiddin.)
Total = 88
Numbers Inclined Towards Muhyiddin
BN = 7 (promoted as ministers, total 11 minus 4 from the above.)
BN = 11 (promoted as deputy ministers.)
BN = 9 (promoted to lead Government Linked Companies.)
Total = 27
Combined Numbers (Strongly and marginally less inclined of Anwar) = 115
Numbers Strongly in Favour of Anwar
DAP = 42
PKR = 38
Amanah = 11
Total = 91
THE SIXTEEN
222 - 91 - 115 = 16
Total of 16 MPs (comprising of Najib's and Zahid's factions) that may align themselves with Anwar (with DAP) in the hopes for a judiciary clemency against their pile of lawsuits. Others may include those sidelined (or hoping for better promotion) by the Muhyiddin's administration. There is an extremely high possibility that Muhyiddin may secure to court/persuade at least more than half of THE SIXTEEN to his side.
The article above with sources from a PH leader spoke UMNO in support of Anwar at 12 to 15 which fits the description from the above paragraph.
This is still a very high stake gamble with two possibilities/instabilities that may follow
1) support towards Anwar may be revoked or spoken to the contrary during the private interview with the King.
2) Anwar will rely on the Najib*Zahid*DAP alliance to pull through. (The reason will be elaborated in other sections.)
Being fair to both sides for the balance of probability yields the following equations below.
ODDS FOR ANWAR VERSUS MUHYIDDIN
Anwar at 91 + 8 = 99
Muhyiddin at 115 + 8 =123
*A newspaper claims that Anwar secures the number 123, our analysis show otherwise unless many inside Muhyiddin's administration including those appointed to lead GLCs turned their back against him.
THE NAJIB*ZAHID*DAP FACTOR
It would be tough for Anwar to explain to his voters the reason for Najib and Zahid to be incorporated as part of PH aspiration. Likewise, this would prove extremely hard for DAP as well.
The only person eagerly supportive of Anwar is Zahid. His statement could not have meant blatantly more obvious as a jibe towards Muhyiddin. Najib (and his team) seem to display strong cynicism over this co-operation (perhaps it was also psychological. Friendship through mockery. Both towards Anwar and Zahid.).
For UMNO, how will Zahid explain to the grassroots as the support by UMNO MPs towards Anwar is tantamount in endorsing DAP to rule alongside UMNO unless Zahid will argue compellingly in length that the whole support was a facade meant to dissolve the parliament?
Such alliance will invoke Malay uprising and create dissatisfaction/dissents among the Right Wings/Royalties as Perikatan National was established with the spirit to thwart DAP (the boogeyman).
This may be the sole reason for the King's withdrawal of support towards Anwar. Even if the King conceded to Anwar's demand and Anwar won the odds marginally, there is a high probability that this administration may only survive for 22 days.
REVIEWED ODDS FOR ANWAR VERSUS MUHYIDDIN
Weight Factor = 4/5
Anwar at 99 x 4/5 = 80 (rounded)
Muhyiddin 123 x 1.15 = 142 (rounded)
*Though Guan Eng proclaimed that all 42 MPs from DAP will unanimously support Anwar, the question is "Will the 42 MPs agree to the deal if Najib and Zahid were brought in to make the alliance work?" Hence, introducing the weight factor 4/5 was necessary to re-calibrate the ratio.
So How Did Anwar Came Up With The Numbers? And It's Political Repercussions
Firstly, he assumes he had the number 42 +38 + 11= 91 in hand. Then, he was being persuaded by certain factions unaligned to Muhyiddin (or the disgruntled faction in his cabinet.) to launch a counter coup against Muhyiddin. Yet, how would DAP and UMNO reconcile unless Anwar plans to betray his voters?
Should the theory that (Zahid*Najib*DAP) comes into play, there is a high probability that PAS and UMNO alliance can be at jeopardy with PAS readily to withdraw their support from UMNO and throws their support behind BERSATU.
Who will garner the Malay voters? PAS and BERSATU without DAP or UMNO and PKR with DAP? It is a political suicide move for both Zahid and Anwar unless Zahid throws PKR and DAP under the bus at the last minute when the election arrives.
Anwar's (Probable) Methodology To Improve His Score
1) The promise of promoting less favorable MPs in a political party with better position. Example : promoting A who is a Deputy Minister(or MP without position) into Ministerial position and promoting B who is leading a GLC back as a Minister.
Unlikely to work. Insignificant measures. It will be chaotic and those demoted will create ruckus. How about DAP and Amanah? Will they stand idly being marginalized without demanding any Ministerial positions? Unless Anwar increases the number of ministers and deputies from the current 70 to 90.
2) The promise of interfering the Malaysian Judiciary System by ensuring clemency to those that supported in favor of him.
Unlikely to work as well. Anwar will have his hands tied tighter than Muhyiddin. Not mentioning that he will be under Zahid's thumb with disgruntled faction of UMNO warlords readily turning against him faster than they turn against Muhyiddin especially with DAP under Anwar's circle. Anwar will be more heavily scrutinized. Hence, the reason to put the number 22 days for his administration.
VERDICT 1
Najib had to ensure his alliance with Anwar is on solid rock (as much as he will not admit it) as a turnover by the Court of Law (for Anwar's Royal Pardon) may deter Najib to secure his Royal Pardon (the same circumstances may be invoke upon him to disqualify him one day.) in the event that his guilty verdict is upheld by the Federal Court. The current pressure by Haniff Khatri (who is strongly aligned to Mahathir) on the AG with regards to Najib's SRC appeal case will put Najib on a more soaking wet pants. Haniff Khatri is also the mastermind together with Khairul Azam whom together rattle the legality of Anwar's Royal Pardon. Hence, it is very likely that Anwar and Najib may join hands to ensure their survival against the unforgiving life-sucking judiciary sentences.
Perhaps it was such desperation that creates the need for the quick election to be held and other unprecedented alliance being forged.
Yet, it would be best to re-iterate again that Najib (and his team including Rosmah) seem to display strong cynicism over this co-operation (perhaps it was also psychological. Friendship through mockery. Both towards Anwar and Zahid.).
VERDICT 2
Anwar is likely deluded with promises made by certain political factions to create instability leading to the dissolution of the Parliament. This is nothing new as the pressure by Anwar on Mahathir initially led to the Sheraton Move which was followed by the removal of Pakatan Harapan at the Federal Level.
Briefing through the circumstantial evidences solidify the conviction that Anwar is being duped with promises. This is evidently shown that during Mahathir's administration, Anwar was adamantly subconsciously defiant despite Mahathir showing him signs of throwing him out from the cabinet. When his wife was made Mahathir's deputy, Anwar was once again duped into believing that the leadership baton would be passed to him.
His failure in grasping reality and continue to live in his fantasy is probably his only hope before dwindling into insanity.
Anwar's desperation had always land him on hot soup. Hopefully it is not too late for him to realize that the dissolution of Parliament would probably put his family (and many PKR MPs under him in great jeopardy with Azmin and gang proving that they might have made the right choice.) of three MPs into oblivion against Perikatan National or Barisan National at the Federal Level. The only way forward is the rumors confirmed by Raja Petra and Reggie Jessy that PKR would support and Anwar will fall under the command of Zahid or Najib. Most probably Zahid.
This is not new and predictions have been made earlier in June. The concern is that such alignment will kill PKR in the long run (sent to a few politicians - Image 1 attached). This move has shocked Anwar's partner in PKR, mainly DAP as the anticipated move (to ensure the success) is only viable if the coalition agreed to get Zahid's and Najib's faction on board.
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/543813
An Anwar-Muhyiddin contention unchecked and the whimsicality politics entertained by the ruler will result in the dissolution of parliament or a new candidate pushed for ascendancy. However, this probability is rather low as Muhyiddin seems intuitive enough to ensure most in Perikatan National quite contented (with the exception of the Zahid's and Najib's factions.).
The only way for this coalition to materialize is for Anwar + Zahid + Najib + Guan Eng + (Tengku Adnan & Ahmad Maslan) sitting under the same roof. All four (plus two) with the possibilities of spending some time of their life behind bars.
Perikatan National was once crowned as "Kerajaan Tebuk Atap" or "Back Door Government". This administration deserves a cooler name "Kerajaaan Cabut Lokap" or "The Prison Break Government" if it ever materializes into one.
*Ahmad Maslan, Tengku Adnan, Tajuddin Abdul Rahman (assuming clear honesty from their side.) had denied to work with DAP, ruling a huge significant of Najib's inclined faction out. So it begs more mystery on how Anwar will pull through his strong numbers of nearly two third around 140 MPs as the bid is only endorsed by Zahid and supported by Nur Jazlan with the other strongmen from likes of Hishammudin, Annuar Musa and Tok Mat completely unaware/took no interest of such maneuvre.
**Anwar should spend more time honing his other skills before making more futile attempts. For other solutions, it is best to observe how this political drama will unfold while ensuring our stockpile of higher grade ammunition are always available to be utilized against those not in line with our aspirations. (Image 2. Power Ring provides real power to those who consumes it than it's inferior competitor Super Ring.)).
