GE14 PRU14 Wrong Sun Tzu's Move Mahathir

The Wrong Sun Tzu's Move - imminent deadly to GE14

25 January 2018 ( with Update on 26 August 2018. Another Update 2 on 26 January 2019. )

Write up is an indirect response to the soon to be 93 years old General who will command his 4 battalions for the upcoming GE14. The focus is on PAN, a component of PH.

One published article without consideration of it's future consequences can be the unexpected devastating move leading to a CHECKMATE. Exaggerating? Full deduction ahead.

It could be clearly perceived that most of the quotes written in the Art of War are quite prudent in nature without requiring particular shrewdness. However, there are always exceptions to any rules and the fault does not lie in Sun Tzu as it was expected of the reader to have a deeper understanding of the setup before applying the set of rules. PAN being the weakest link in the coalition with their desperate attempt to demonstrate their might have overused the quote below...

"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak..."

It's aftermath could be devastating from an intelligence point of view. Warfare intelligence had always been the core of Chinese Civilization from times of our ancestors to the current Chinese diaspora. For a start, the rule above does not define the universal truth and Sun Tzu never elaborate further on what are the conditions and how it should be applied. The rules above are applicable in certain scenario. Examples

i) a trader dealing with officials from the Tax Department - appear weak when you are strong.
ii) a businessman applying for a bank loan - appear strong when you are weak.

The article by Malaysian Insight is worth to be analyzed it's overall intention and consequences of it's writing

https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/33871/

On the surface, it could be summed up as good analytical skills, convincing to the readers, a confidence booster to PH and PAN supporters and a threat to BN supremacy. On the contrary, it might have revealed too much than intended such that it demonstrates visible key points to the strength of the strategies implored. Strength of the strategies particularly crucial in delivering a great threat to some of previous PAS and BN stronghold. Some of the unintended lines

"...Research outfit Invoke’s worst forecast for the next polls is that PH will win only 25% Malay, 65% Chinese and 30% Indian support...."

"...Kota Raja is 44% Malay, Indian (29%) and Chinese (25%)...."

“From there, we have at least six A+ seats with Kota Raja and Kota Baru being the top two,”

While it is wise to assume that BN and PAS strategists are of the highest standards, too much had been revealed. The 3 statements could immediately interpret "What PAN (generally PH) strategists and leadership had in mind?". Two very simple conclusions and affirmations follow

1) PAN is relying on a strong Non-Malays (strong Chinese presence) votes for A and A+ seats, which confirms the myth of DAP's role.
2) It also signifies that splitting the Malay votes will give an upper hand for State Assemblies and Parliamentary seats that PH is contesting with higher Non Malay / Malay ratio. A justification that can be capitalized by UMNO and PAS for their Malay hegemony.

Nonetheless, these two are not the most important points, the important point lies in the value of A+ that could sway PAN to victory in Kota Bharu and Kota Raja as our prime example. One presumption that could follow from the article are the assumptions that are applied to the calculations

3) Assumption 1 - 3 corners struggle among PH, PAS and BN
4) Assumption 2 - PAN will win if the odds against PAS and BN are above 33.33% of the votes. Suffice to apply Rafizi's parameter for the Kota Raja calculation yields

0.25 x 44 + 0.65 x 25 + 0.3 x 29 = 36%
Assume Tun M popularity factor of 4%
Assume Popularity Vote factor of another 4%
Additional + 5% due to Best Forecast
Neglecting the increment from SpoiltVote Voters and BoycottGE factor
Obviously in any simulations, one could take all the positive factors to contribute a better forecast, the final goal however lies in staying to the truth.

A biased PH estimation puts Kota Raja to PAN at 36% to 49%

Hate to break the bubble but it is still insufficient to grade as A+

5) Assumption 1 on 3 corners struggle might not hold any water implicating that to secure a win or A+ should ideally have the range between a low 48% to a high 75%.

The reason to 5) is

6) that PAS and BN might agree on "concessional split" such that PAS takes Kota Bharu with BN support while BN takes Kota Raja with PAS support. Just applied to this two seats - reducing PAN's impact significantly while protecting both their interest. In contrast for the case of Setiawangsa which initially is a BN 50.5% and PH 49.5%, a 3 corners will proceed and PAS will be abetting BN's win smoothly.

7) The ultimate blow from this "perplexing intention analytical article by Malaysian Insight" is not just about

a) losing Kota Raja and Kota Bharu but losing two parliamentary seats that probably might be needed in winning GE14,

b) but subsequently from the strategy discussed in 6), the other 27 seats PAN is contesting can be analytically observed whether is more beneficial to apply "concessional split" or "3 corners struggle" to maximise PAS and BN win over PAN / PH. What happens if the 20 seats are needed to give BN the ultimate blow?

c) and as predecessors for PAS to implore this option at their DUN Kelantan level affected around the Kota Bharu area ( to keep Kelantan ) and for BN to implore this option to snatch Selangor affecting the DUN around the Kota Raja area.

d) and provide BN ( which controls the EC) to spurn better analytical studies on voters demographics to their advantages,

e) and providing PAN's point of view for interpretations to BN and PAS strategists on which constituencies PH top leadership are contesting, hence giving more preparation and ammunition to dethrone key PH leaders from their seats. Immediately giving a slight geopolitical advantages on their end.

The risk of applying Sun Tzu's art of war without understanding the setup had been explained thoroughly. One of Sun Tzu's Art of War quote is...

“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”

Honestly, Sun Tzu made it sound so simple, obviously for a genius.

UPDATE : The arrogance displayed by the previous Najib Administration which strongly prefers flattery over merit from ignorant showing off bunch of skyhigh yet failing team of advisors ignores such wise council not to add their impervious behaviors towards the plights and cries on the ground. However, they are now executing this strategy after their LOST in GE14. The strategy is not 100% shattered proof and could result in fatality should Tun Mahathir's side opted a wiser tactic once the breaking point is asserted.

UPDATE 2 : BN won Cameron Highlands imploring this simple strategy highlighted extensively in this article. The Financial Debunker is sending our powerful echo that this simple strategy was devised merely to be shattered.